The Christmas weekend at the box office is expected to be lackluster, with “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” poised to lead despite a projected soft performance. The sequel, directed by James Wan and starring Jason Momoa, is anticipated to garner between $37 million and $43 million in its domestic debut over the four-day holiday stretch. This figure pales in comparison to the original film’s release five years ago and falls short of the recent disappointing $46.1 million opening for “The Marvels” from rival Marvel Studios.
Despite the expected underperformance, “Aquaman 2” is likely to secure the top spot during what appears to be a sluggish Christmas weekend for the overall box office. The superhero genre has faced challenges throughout the year, contributing to a year-end that may not be as merry as anticipated. The timing of Christmas falling on a Monday, coupled with a dip in moviegoing on Christmas Eve, adds to the subdued outlook.
In 2018, the first “Aquaman” film enjoyed a robust three-day opening of $67.9 million, reaching a domestic tally of $105.4 million through Christmas Day. The global earnings eventually surpassed $1.15 billion. In contrast, the sequel, plagued by delays and reshoots, is not expected to achieve similar success and signals a low-key conclusion to the current DC era before the planned 2025 reboot with “Superman: Legacy.”
Warner Bros. faces a unique challenge with three year-end holiday event movies – “Aquaman,” “Wonka,” and “The Color Purple.” “Wonka,” starring Timothée Chalamet, opened to a promising $39 million and is projected to secure the second spot with $20 million to $23 million over Christmas weekend.
The animated family film “Migration” by Illumination and Universal is also set to debut, with tracking suggesting a four-day gross of $14 million to $15 million. Its performance will be closely scrutinized in the context of the challenging market for theatrical animated fare featuring original stories.
Other contenders include Columbia’s romantic-comedy “Anyone but You,” projected to earn $6 to $8 million, and A24’s wrestling family drama “The Iron Claw,” starring Zac Efron. The expanding slate of awards contenders, such as MGM/Amazon’s “American Fiction,” adds to the mix.
The real action is expected on Christmas Day, with films like “The Color Purple” tracking to generate $10 million to $11 million on its first day. Additionally, MGM/Amazon’s “The Boys in the Boat” and Michael Mann’s “Ferrari” are projected to open with $2 million to $3 million each on December 25, adding to the holiday box office landscape.
